According to data from non-bank lender Banjo Loans, SME lending volumes decreased by approximately 5% in the last quarter of 2025. This downturn follows a 14% rise in the September quarter, indicating a significant shift in borrowing behaviour. The initial surge in September was attributed to a brief period of optimism; however, subsequent discussions about potential rate cuts being off the table led to a subdued borrowing environment in the following months.
Guy Callaghan, CEO of Banjo Loans, noted that after a strong spike in September and October, the discourse around the cessation of rate cuts contributed to a very subdued final two months for SME borrowing. This sentiment underscores the sensitivity of SMEs to monetary policy signals and their impact on financial decision-making.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy stance has been a pivotal factor in this scenario. While some lenders have forecasted further cash rate hikes, others anticipate the RBA maintaining the cash rate at 3.6%. This divergence in expectations has created a cloud of uncertainty, making it challenging for SMEs to plan their financing strategies effectively.
For SMEs, the implications are multifaceted. On one hand, the reluctance to borrow may stem from a prudent approach to managing potential increases in debt servicing costs. On the other hand, reduced borrowing can impede business growth and investment opportunities, potentially affecting long-term competitiveness.
In this context, it is crucial for SMEs to stay informed about economic indicators and central bank communications. Engaging with financial advisors to develop flexible financing plans that can adapt to changing interest rate environments may also be beneficial. Additionally, exploring alternative financing options, such as non-bank lenders who may offer more tailored solutions, could provide avenues for necessary capital without the constraints of traditional banking institutions.
In conclusion, the decline in SME borrowing in late 2025 highlights the intricate relationship between economic policy, market expectations, and business behaviour. As the economic landscape continues to evolve, SMEs must navigate these challenges with strategic foresight and adaptability to sustain their operations and growth trajectories.
