The findings point to a cautious mood among borrowers and would-be buyers. Around 8.1 million Australians, or 38 per cent, expect a refund this year, while 15 per cent expect a tax bill. Among those anticipating money back, 58 per cent reportedly plan to add it to savings, while 14 per cent intend to put it towards household bills. A smaller but still notable group, 6 per cent, say they will use their refund to pay down their mortgage.

For homeowners, that 6 per cent matters. In a higher-rate environment, even a modest lump sum can help create a repayment buffer, reduce interest over time or ease the pressure of the next bill cycle. The best use will depend on the loan structure. Borrowers with an offset account may prefer to park the refund there, preserving access to cash while reducing interest charged. Others may choose an extra repayment, provided their loan allows it and they understand any redraw rules or fixed-rate limits.

This story also extends the broader theme we have been watching across the mortgage market: households are not just chasing lower rates, they are trying to build resilience. Rate forecasts, lender competition and property price movements all matter, but personal cash flow remains the day-to-day reality. A tax refund can be an opportunity to review whether the current loan still fits, especially if repayments have risen, savings have thinned or a fixed term is nearing expiry.

First-home buyers may wish to consider a similar lesson. Saving a refund may not transform a deposit overnight, but it may assist with strengthening genuine savings history, cover upfront buying costs or reduce reliance on short-term credit. Existing borrowers may also wish to consider using the moment to model the impact on repayments before making a decision.

The key is to treat the refund as part of a plan rather than a one-off windfall. That could mean topping up an emergency fund, reducing expensive debt, adding to an offset account, or speaking with professional guidance about refinancing options. In 2026, financial breathing room is valuable, and for many households, tax time may be the nudge needed to regain a little control.